“Haaretz” poll: Labor leads, Yisrael Beyteinu close to electoral threshold

A Haaretz poll published today shows that Labor would win the most seats if the elections were held today.

Ben Bernstein comments:

Despite the fact that building a left wing coalition will not be easy for Herzog, he has to be thrilled with these poll results as his campaign looked dead in the water a month ago.

Another person who has to be happy is Moshe Kahlon whose Kulanu list gets 11 seats in the latest poll. As Kahlon sits on the right left divide, he would seem to be the kingmaker for who forms the next coalition and how that coalition would look.

Someone who willl be unhappy is FM Leiberman who is dangerously close to the electoral threshold.

The full results of the poll are as follows:

Seats Party
24 Labor
21 Likud
13 Joint Arab List
12  Yesh Atid
11 Habayit Hayehudi
11 Kulanu
7 Shas
6 Yahadut Hatorah
6 Meretz
5 Yachad
4 Yisrael Beyteinu
Source (Hebrew): http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/682/941.html
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Left gains ground in latest poll

Yesh Atid and the rest of the center left bloc continues to grow stronger, according to today’s Knesset Channel poll, with the election just days away.

The “just not Bibi” bloc which is thought to consist of Labor, Meretz, United Arab List and Yesh Atid has a combined 56 seats out of a possible 120. It still seems unlikely that Herzog will be able to form a government but if the bloc was to reach 60 they most likely would be able to force a unity government with a rotation in the premiership.

On the other hand, Netanyahu’s potential narrow right wing coalition looks shakier than ever. Netanyahu cannot count on Yachad’s Baruch Marzel which would leave him with 63 seats and the possibility of any one party bolting the coalition to take down the government.

In this scenario, the most likely turn of events would be a unity government despite Netanyahu and Herzog admitting that neither is interested in this.

The full results of the poll are as follows:

Seats Party
24 Labor
21 Likud
14 Yesh Atid
13  United Arab List
12 Habayit Hayehudi
9 Kulanu
7 Shas
6 Yahadut Hatorah
5 Meretz
5 Yisrael Beyteinu
4 Yachad
Source (Hebrew): http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/682/341.html
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Likud gains seats but Right loses seats overall after Netanyahu speech in Congress

TV Channels 2 and 10 released new polls following Netanyahu’s address to the American Congress.

Likud gained seats from previous polls but overall the “right bloc” shrunk.

The poll is bad news for Likud which would have hoped for a bigger jump but also not great for Herzog who will find it near impossible to build a coalition with the following poll results.

The person who has to be most satisfied with this poll is Moshe Kahlon who is set to sit directly on the divide between right and left and can decide if he wants a narrow right wing government, a left wing minority government or a unity government.

Yair Lapid can also smile as he continues his positive momentum to poll results of 12 and 13 respectively.

The full results of the poll are as follows:

Party Channel 2 Channel 10
Labor 24 23
Likud 23 23
United Arab List 13 13
Yesh Atid 12 13
Habayit Hayehudi 12 11
Kulanu 8 10
Yahadut Hatorah 6 6
Yisrael Beyteinu 6 5
Shas 6 7
Meretz 6 5
Yachad 4 4
Source (Hebrew): http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/1.2581380
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Galei Tzahal poll: Labor leads Likud by two seats

Labor leads Likud 24 to 22 in the latest poll from Galei Tzahal. The poll is one of the best Labor has seen since the beginning of the election as not only does Labor lead Likud but Likud also seems to be losing seats to more centrist parties such as Yisrael Beyteinu. Labor’s strategy of emphasizing Isaac Herzog and “hiding” Tzipi Livni, taken by new campaign manager Reuven Adler seems to be paying off.

With all that said, the odds are still that Netanyahu would be the Prime Minister even if the election results match this poll, simply because it would be very difficult for Herzog to form a coalition. The ultra-Orthodox parties have said they will not sit with Yesh Atid, Lieberman said he would not sit with Meretz and Kahlon is an ex-Likud Minister who is thought to lean right on security matters though left on economics.

The full results of the poll are as follows:

Seats Party
24 Labor
22 Likud
12 United Arab List
12 Yesh Atid
12 Habayit Hayehudi
8 Kulanu
7 Yahadut Hatorah
7 Yisrael Beyteinu
6 Shas
6 Meretz
4 Yachad (Yishai)
Source (Hebrew):http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/680/289.html
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Knesset Channel poll: Likud and Labor tied at 24

The Knesset Channel released a poll today showing that if the elections were held today Likud and Labor would each get 24 seats.

Israelection’s Ben Bernstein comments:

“Practically, it seems very unlikely that Labor leader Isaac Herzog could create a coalition. That being said, the poll isn’t great news for the right either as Bayit Yehudi is back down to 11 seats and Yisrael Beyteinu is at five. While Netanyahu may be able to cobble together a coalition of 67 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, Yahadut Hatorah, Yisrael Beyteinu, Kulanu and Yachad minus Baruch Marzel), the coalition would be fairly difficult to govern and Netanyahu may be tempted to create a unity government.”

The full poll results are as follows:

Seats Party
24 Labor
24 Likud
13 United Arab List
12 Yesh Atid
11 Habayit Hayehudi
8 Kulanu
7 Yahadut Hatorah
7 Shas
5 Yisrael Beyteinu
5 Meretz
4 Yachad (Yishai)
Source (Hebrew):http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/678/930.html
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Channel 10 Poll: Labor leads

The latest Channel 10 poll shows both the Likud and Labor losing seats compared to previous polls. The poll was taken after a report from the state controller was released, criticizing various expenses and spending habits by Netanyahu during his tenure as Prime Minister.

Labor leader Herzog would still need to convince multiple centrist parties who lean right to support him in order to form a coalition.

The big winner in this poll is Moshe Kahlon whose “Kulanu” party returns to double digits after almost a month at 6-8 seats. Naftali Bennett can also smile as his party recovers to a respectable 13 seats.

The full results are as follows:

Seats Party
23 Labor
22 Likud
13 Habayit Hayehudi
12 United Arab List
12 Yesh Atid
10 Kulanu
7 Yahadut Hatorah
7 Shas
5 Yisrael Beyteinu
5 Meretz
4 Yachad (Yishai)
Source (Hebrew):http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/677/652.html
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Zoabi, Marzel banned from running in election; Supreme Court appeal looms

The Knesset Elections Committee today banned United Arab List MK Hanin Zoabi and Yachad candidate Baruch Marzel from running in the upcoming elections, due to allegedly racist statements and actions they have both made in the past. Zoabi was banned by a wide margin of 27-6, while Marzel lost his hearing by a 17-16 vote.

By law, this ruling is automatically appealed to the Supreme Court. Most experts  expect the ruling to be overturned on appeal.

Source (Hebrew): http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/1.2563790
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