Project 61 publishes final predictions

Project 61, the statistical analysis project based on weighting poll results according to the past accuracy of each pollster and their individual skew per party, has released its predictions in the form of four scenarios.

The scenarios differ based on how the undecided voters vote, leading to the “surprise factor” that led, for example, to Yesh Atid’s whopping win last election and the Pensioners’ success in 2006.

Each scenario results in a different breakdown of the various blocs and therefore the coalition options.

Party 1: Likud Recovery 2: Kulanu Surprise 3: Mystery Surprise 4: No Surprise
Zionist Union 24 24 24 25
Likud 24 19 19 22
United Arab List 14 14 14 13
Bayit Yehudi 11 11 11 11
Yesh Atid 10 10 10 12
Kulanu 8 13 8 9
Shas 8 8 8 8
Yahadut Hatorah 7 7 7 6
Yisrael Beyteinu 5 5 5 5
Yachad 5 5 5 4
Meretz 4 4 4 5
Surprise 5
Bloc
Right 40 35 35 37
Left 28 28 28 30
Center 23 28 23 26
Haredim 15 15 15 14
Arabs 14 14 14 13
Surprise 5
Source (Hebrew): https://www.facebook.com/Project.61.IL